Up! could be certified diamond post new year

[IYWTTH, Ask!]

despite the fact that IGGG lost airplay on both country and pop charts, up will continue to sell as the holidays are coming. you might think that shania's new album will dip after first week but you are wrong. UP! could be selling up to 1.5 million copies (uninflated) during the Chrismas week. So keep on watching cause it will be certified diamond in no time!

By the way, this week, UP! slides from #8 to #9 on billboard country chart. But who cares? Remember Jennifer Lopez #1 singles such as "I'm Real" and "Aint it Funny" and the #9 "I'm gonna be alright", yet her album sales is pretty low. barely reached platinum. LOL. regardless j. lo give a re-mix album. even the album "j. lo" and "j to tha L.O" combined, it only sold over 4x platinum. and the b*tch needs rappers surround her to get her album sold.

But not Shania. she writes her own song and sing them without any collaborations. and she deserves to be respected. i remembered garth's double live album went 14x platinum like within 3 months. I think shania can do better than that!

i don't even want to compare Faith with Shania because Faith isn't even in the Shania sales realm. Her album even slips to the dixie chicks this week, which is #1 album on the country chart currently.

[strickls]

Actually, Shania is gaining a lot of spins on the country charts.

[kerawal]

A gain of spin does not a sale make. I Think Shakespeare once said that. Usually a song is based on its own merit. Yes, whether or not the song is good will determine whether some people will but the album or not, but it does not necessarily have a direct connection with the album sale. Usually, once an album is released, that will boost a song, but usually not enough to power it all the way to #1. While airplay spins have been a little stagnit, we have seen an increase of airplay spins over the last week. Offically, IGGG did lose airplay, and subsequently fell on the Billboard Hot Country Singles And Track Chart, an almost sure death-blow to the life of a song. But, usually Songs do not peak before an album is released. Blame it on Shania and her dang popularity. The song soared at first, debuting at an impressive #24, then moving to #15, #12, #11, #10, #8, and now #9 in the following weeks. We saw this with Faith Hill's "Cry", Rising fast up the charts, then fizzling after reaching the peak position of #12. Yet, Faith mamged to sell over 400K her first week. Not too bad! On the COO album, she had some impressive stats:

Love Gets Me Every Time (#1-5 weeks)
Honey, Im Home (#1-1 weeks)
You're Still The One (#1-1 weeks)
Man! I Feel Like A Woman (#4)
From This Moment On (#6)
Come On Over (#6)
Don't Be Stupid (#6)
That Don't Impress Me Much (#8)
You've Got A Way (#13)
Rock This Country (#18)
I'm Holding On To Love To Save My Life (#22)

Out of 11 songs released, only 3 were number 1 on the Country Charts. Only so-so for Shania. Yet, despite several chart near misses and a few top tens, sales of COO were astronomical!
I have thought through this and this is my reasoning for diamond status soon:
We know 4.1 million units were shipped already. Say Shania sells the following:
11/19-11/25- 800,000
11/26-12/02- 700,000
12/03-12/09- 500,000
12/10-12/16- 400,000
12/17-12/23- 400,000
12/24-12/31- 400,000
Grand Total - 3,200,000
This would nearly deplete all the 4.1 million units sold, thus having to restock with say 2.4 million. This would put the total units shipped from 1/19-12/31 at 6.5 million. Since RIAA goes by units shipped and will more than likely count the album as 2 units, we could be looking at a certification a little after the first of the year of....13 million.*

*This is all opinionated and a guess. Please keep that in mind.

[razorbac]

do we have the sales number yet?

[strickls]

I know that's opinionated, but there is just now way anyone can know how many albums Shania will sale. It just depends on too much stuff. By the way, Shania moves to #7.

[kerawal]

LIke I said, It was not only opinionated, but a guess. I was trying to take into account how albums tend to drop off a little sales-wise after the first week and the christmas holiday. Shania moves to #7 on airplay on all-access. We do not know the new numbers from Billboard yet. She has picked up speed a little, but IGGG has songs ahead of it that actually gain airplay. 2 songs are falling in front of it while one song behind is breathing down her neck, so it would be hard to move from the #9 spot this coming week (Billboard). She may move back up on the Billboard Hot Country Singles And Tracks Chart a position or maybe 2, but it is close to being done. And you said there is no way anyone can know how many albums Shania will sell. If so, why did you predict she will be certified diamond within no time. Again, I said mine was opinionated and a guess. No logical mathematical equation did I use to come up with those numbers. Just a guess.

[IYWTTH, Ask!]

okay, i'll give you my explanation, which is really simple. here comes:

#1 soundscan only give you the number of sales consumers actually buying the CD in the record store which includes Tower, Best Buy, Walmart...etc.

#2 internet sales DO NOT count when the sales is finalized. therefore, the prediction of shania is going to sell 800k-900k on the first week is just for soundscan only. no online sales is calculated.

#3 i've been following charts for quite a long time, therefore, i know what's going on when albums release on big Tuesdays. especially consider shania's mega sales of COO. that would reflect on her new album UP! she is NOT going to lose sales during the Christmas week. my estimation would be around 1.5 million or 3 million for a double disc. THAT FIGURE EXCLUDE ONLINE SALES.

YOU NEED TO REMEMBER THAT SHANIA NEEDS TO ONLY SELL OVER 5x PLATINUM AND SHE'LL BE CERTIFIED DIAMOND. I BETCHA THAT WITHIN JANUARY 2003, UP! WILL CARRY A DIAMOND. I AM 80% POSITIVE ABOUT THAT.

And by the way, albums sales depends a lot on radio airplay. people listen to songs that they like and they come out and purchase the album. that's what they do. they don't just purchase that album without knowing any familiar songs on it. as for shania's case it's a little bit different since she is a superstar, so she has sales boost but only for a couple of weeks AFTER UP IS RELEASED (because she has fan base, so they'll purchase whatever she releases). After that, UP! will depend very highly on radio airplay, concerts, VH1/MTV/CMT to survive. AND DO YOU KNOW WHY SHANIA APPEARS ON CMA, DAVID LETTERMAN, AMA...ETC???? THE ONLY REASON IS TO PROMOTE HER ALBUM.

and you're right, high airplay doesn't necessarily means album boost. there are a lot of other factors. a good example would be people hate j. lo/madonna because she act like a **** so they just naturally don't buy her album. or may be singles release by the artist is quite similar to each other therefore their album don't gain any new fans. a lot of factors, not just one or two.

[kerawal]

I think we are in the same boat here. I also agree that Up will be certified diamond before too long. I gave my reasoning. 9/10 out of 10 albums will not sell more the following week than it did in it's first week (if it debuts high or at #1). I too, have been following the charts for several years now. I have seen trends, and it was my understanding from a blurb from a soundscan website that online sales are calculated in the first weeks totals. Second, the second week, even though she might decrease in sales, it should be lower than the first week. The second week will be a good "average" for her. It should flucuate around that number in the weeks after that leading up to christmas. My guess, again, was that even though the album sales declined, is calculating with sales she would Ship out 6.5 million units by the end of the year (again...a guess).
I have thought through this and this is my reasoning for diamond status soon:
We know 4.1 million units were shipped already. Say Shania sells the following:
11/19-11/25- 800,000
11/26-12/02- 700,000
12/03-12/09- 500,000
12/10-12/16- 400,000
12/17-12/23- 400,000
12/24-12/31- 400,000
Grand Total - 3,200,000
This would nearly deplete all the 4.1 million units sold, thus having to restock with say 2.4 million. This would put the total units shipped from 1/19-12/31 at 6.5 million. Since RIAA goes by units shipped and will more than likely count the album as 2 units, we could be looking at a certification a little after the first of the year of....13 million.*
What is boils down to, since there is no way to tell what Shania will sell int the next 6 weeks, is the difference between Soundcan and RIAA. Will Soundscan count as 2 units, will it count as 1. Will RIAA count the album as 2, or will it count it as 1? I say, enough speculations and predictions. We will find out in the next 2-3 days.

[twaintrain]

If anyone could do it, Shania could. All I can say is sell, sell, sell! :)

[kerawal]

And the reasoning I gave as to a high playing radio song not being the only factor in an album sales was correct. I did not go into further explantion as to the many factors which help sell an album. Did you take into account file-swapping and the economy, more factors that play into album sales. Yes I know all about this, again, I have watched the charts and Shania intensively for 8 years now. As far as album sales week to week and the reasoning, we will have to agree to disagree. There is no need arguing over something we have no way of predicting. :)

[DJMc]

Personally I don't see that happen, unless they rush-release a second single...or better yet 2. One for country radio and one for pop radio.
Her team is playing too safe till now -except for the video which is avant-garde- so its not boosting the sales as much as possible. The album has enough gems in it to do it tho.